Sunday, February 3, 2008

State Dems accused of ignoring independents

Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is desperately seeking independent voters to support him in Tuesday's Democratic primary, but some California liberals believe party officials haven't done enough to spread a message that could be key to Obama's success in the state: that decline-to-state voters can cast Democratic ballots.

Going into the final weekend of the campaign, the concern over reaching independent voters was one of several signs that the race between Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton could be tightening in California, which offers the biggest delegate prize in Tuesday's Super Tuesday primary.

There also were two signs Friday that the departure of former Sen. John Edwards from the race earlier this week is sending more support to Obama. The liberal online hub MoveOn - with a membership of 3.2 million - voted to endorse the Illinois senator, the first time MoveOn has backed a candidate in a primary race.

Also on Friday, the 650,000-member California service workers union, which had previously endorsed Edwards, shifted its support to Obama.

But it was concern over reaching the state's growing number of independent voters that spurred an organization to broadcast a last-minute radio appeal.

"The Democratic Party had a huge opportunity to appeal to decline-to-state voters, and they didn't take the opportunity that was handed to them," said Rick Jacobs, founder of the 100,000-member Courage Campaign, a liberal online organization that has not endorsed a candidate.

The group raised money to fund radio commercials to air across the state Monday - starring actor and Clinton supporter Bradley Whitford - that tell decline-to-state voters that they can request a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. The goal, Jacobs said, is to try to woo new voters to the Democratic side.

And that, Jacobs said, is something the state party should have done a better job of doing.

"It was a total whiff on their part," Jacobs said. "They didn't even swing as far as I can tell."

"That's baloney," said California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. "We have continuously reached out to decline-to-states."

Though Jacobs doesn't believe there was any intention by party officials to favor one campaign or another, Torres bristled at any insinuation from others that the party establishment is trying to aid Clinton's candidacy by downplaying its outreach to independents.

The state party's bylaws prevent the party from doing anything that favors one candidate over another in the primary. Torres said he has reached out to independents in interviews and through the party's Web site, but said the state party could not afford a major TV campaign to get decline-to-state voters to the polls. The party sent e-mails to permanent decline-to-state voters on Dec. 26, reminding them they can vote in the Democratic primary and plans to send another e-mail reminder to all independents this weekend, Torres said.

"If the Obama campaign is concerned because they think they will be getting the lion's share of independent votes, then they should be doing mail and communications," he said. "That's the responsibility of their campaign."

While Obama campaigners were careful not to criticize party leaders Friday, they've made it clear that reaching decline-to-state voters is key to their California strategy, particularly in the Bay Area where there are plenty of voters who don't identify with the two major parties.

"Sen. Obama's message of unity and change really resonates with independent voters, so we have made reaching them a major focus," said Debbie Mesloh, a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign.

The final voter registration numbers for Tuesday's election, released Friday, show just how important decline-to-state voters have become in California elections.

Since the 2004 presidential primary, the Democrats have added 230,000 registered voters, Republicans have lost 135,407, and 563,125 more people have signed up as decline-to-state voters. They now represent 19.3 percent of California's voters. The endorsements Obama received Friday could bring thousands of new foot soldiers into his campaign, including some of those elusive decline-to-state voters. Key was the blessing from MoveOn. The online giant promised its membership that it wouldn't back any candidate until two-thirds of its members supported that candidate.

A few weeks ago, the membership was split. But, as MoveOn Executive Director Eli Pariser wrote in an e-mail Friday "with John Edwards bowing out, progressives are coming together." More than 70 percent of MoveOn members said they prefer Obama compared with 30 percent for Clinton.

"Something big is clearly happening," Pariser wrote Friday. "If we all pitch in together between now and Tuesday, we can help Sen. Obama win the biggest primary day in American history."

More ground troops will come from California's service employees' union. Service Employees International Union officials said their members will spend the weekend running phone banks in Oakland and Los Angeles urging union members to vote for Obama.

Obama also brought Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy to Oakland on Friday to pump up the campaign's supporters for a huge get-out-the-vote effort over the weekend.

"The eyes of the country are on California," he told a standing-room-only crowd at Beebe Memorial Cathedral C.M.E. "We can elect someone who will electrify this nation."

The Republican National Committee pounced on Friday's developments as an example of Obama scoring the "Liberal Hat Trick."

"In The Span Of Five Days, Barack Obama Earned MoveOn.Org Endorsement, Sen. Ted Kennedy's Seal Of Approval, And National Journal's Most Liberal Senator Ranking," the RNC Web site declared.

"It's a bizarre day in American politics when Ted Kennedy campaigns for Barack Obama in the Bay Area, and the most conservative part of that statement is 'Ted Kennedy,' " said RNC spokesman Paul Lindsay.

Obama also pushed to improve his standing with Latinos, who could make up close to 20 percent of the Democratic primary voters. So far, Latinos have been leaning heavily toward Clinton.

In a telephone news conference Friday, several of Obama's Latino backers emphasized that he will address immigration reform in his first year in office.

"He will tackle a difficult issue in an honest way and take people with him," said Rep. Xavier Becerra, a Los Angeles Democrat.

But Clinton also is working hard to get the Latino vote out, said Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. She was endorsed Friday by Los Angeles Supervisor Gloria Molina and named the prominent Latina a national co-chair for her presidential campaign.

Despite Obama's efforts, Clinton's campaign believes it can seal a victory in California with its extensive vote-by-mail operation. A Los Angeles Times-CNN-Politico poll, released Tuesday, found that Clinton had a major edge with voters planning to vote by mail, leading 53 percent to 30 percent over Obama. She held a narrower lead, 42 percent to 34 percent, among those planning to vote in precincts.

Voters who cast their ballots by mail tend to be older and whiter and are more likely to be female - demographic groups where Clinton has shown strength.

State election officials predict that 47 percent of ballots will be cast by mail this year. Stephen Weir, president of the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials and the elections chief in Contra Costa County, said county elections officials are reporting that about 30 percent of the ballots that will be cast in Tuesday's primary are already in.

Even if the polls appear to be tightening before election day, "it's a mirage," said Ace Smith, Clinton's California campaign manager. He predicted that the first returns to be announced as polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday - the absentee ballots - will show Clinton's advantage.

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