For Israel's Olmert, scraping by is a strategy

Facing a scathing interim report on his conduct of the 2006 Lebanon war, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert boasted last year he was "indestructible".

Many Israelis scoffed at that, hearing what sounded like the desperate bluster of an unpopular career politician who had been propelled to power by the illness of his predecessor, ex-general Ariel Sharon, and then failed to pass muster on the battlefield.

But Olmert survived. And after the Winograd Commission of inquiry spared him serious censure in a final report delivered on Wednesday, he looks likely to continue defying calls from foes and even some allies to quit or hold early elections.

The reprieve came as little surprise to analysts who say the 62-year-old marathon runner's strategy often amounts to devising way of scraping by crises -- including cancer -- as they come.

"He has been the eternal death-row inmate of Israeli politics. And now, as we gather before the guillotine in the town square, we learn that the defendant has fled," said Maariv newspaper's Ben Caspit. "Olmert will not fall. Not now, anyway."

Olmert's critics had held little hope of the Winograd Commission demanding his ouster, noting that the prime minister had hand-picked the panelists. There were those who suggested the 17-month lag in issuing the report was due to deliberate government delays designed to dull public memories of the war.

But Olmert has also built a broad coalition government and a booming economy, and has the backing of U.S. President George W. Bush, who hopes, in his last year in office, to see the Israeli leader make peace with the Palestinians.

Furthermore, Olmert lacks clear potential challengers. His most obvious rival in government, Defence Minister Ehud Barak, has signalled he won't break rank.

BLESSED BY LOW EXPECTATIONS

Olmert may have been blessed, paradoxically, by low expectations in a country disgruntled by deadlocked conflicts with the Arabs, and politics rife with infighting and scandals.

An opinion poll conducted after Winograd's conclusions came out found 56 percent of Israelis want Olmert to resign while 27 percent do not -- a rebuke, but arguably an improvement for a premier who once suffered single-digit ratings and public criticism from his own daughter over Israel's policies in Gaza.

Former justice minister Yosef Lapid, an Olmert confidant, said his almost four decades in parliament had "innoculated" him to challenges and given him an edge over even the many grizzled warriors who parachute in to Israeli politics from the military -- former premiers Barak, Sharon and Yitzhak Rabin among them.

"Olmert has rich experience and a very strong personality," Lapid said. "I would say his style is like the Americans -- a U.S. president has to be elected once, and then he runs the show. Unfortunately, that doesn't quite fit the Israeli scene."

Not the least of Olmert's continuing worries is the early stage prostate cancer for which he says he will have surgery.

Olmert's elder brother, Amram, recalled how the prime minister, denied a posting in the army special forces due to a childhood sporting injury, re-enlisted when he was in his 30s and married to undergo a gruelling combat officer's course.

"He had that need to prove to himself that he could do it," Amram Olmert told Reuters, adding that his younger brother retains something of a relish for the fight.

"He has an extraordinary sensitivity for the needs of other people, but let's just say he also likes to know that he's an animal who can handle all the other animals in the forest."